Rubbin' is Racin'

Halfway Through the Season: How Are The Predictions Holding Up?

2008-07-12T20:42:00.000-07:00

So, at the start of the year, I made a number of predictions. Time to see how they are panning out at halfway.

Ryan Newman breaks winless streak. Best chances: Dover, New Hampshire.

He won the first race of the year, the Daytona 500. That's a yes.

Kevin Harvick is placed on probation after yet another incident with Montoya.

Not yet.

DEI-RCR engine combination still has issues with COT.

I define issues, in this situation, as being slow. Every week. So yes.

Dale Jr. breaks winless streak...maybe.

It may have been a cheap fuel mileage win at Michigan that he cheated to get by passing the pace car, but the record books say 'W' so I say yes.

Juan Montoya causes at least six accidents. At Daytona.

Not really, but it's hard to cause wrecks when you are that slow.

Open wheeler influx leads to many more cautions.

Let's put it this way: the new car is hard to wreck, so it has reduced cautions, but I think the percentage of open wheelers involved in accidents is very high.

Toyota wins a race or two with JGR, but other TRD teams (except 83 car) still struggle.

Whoops...I missed that one by a mile. I didn't figure in cheater motors and blind NASCAR officials, of course.

COT continues to disappoint with boring racing.

Double check.

Independent teams continue to be crushed; will be all but extinct by 2010.

Triple check.

Mark Martin declares that he is "blessed."

I didn't watch the press conference about his Salute to You Seven tour with Hendrick, but five'll'getcha'ten he said it.

Jeff Gordon beats Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Daytona as the race finishes under caution due to a Dario Franchitti/Juan Montoya wreck.

Nope, unfortunately.

So, overall...drumroll please:

Five for-sure yes's
Four for-sure no's
Two iffy ones

I declare that as falling into the "not too bad" category.

Lifelock.com 400 - Chicagoland NSCS

2008-07-12T20:34:00.000-07:00

Big surprise...Kyle Busch wins again. More accurately, though, Jimmie Johnson lost. He flat ran out of talent and made some very poor decisions right there, and it cost him a W.

NASCAR is looking at an engine change rule in the Nationwide Series because of the sheer ridiculous charade that series has become. Hey NASCAR: maybe it's time to dyno some Cup motors too you idiots.

The Top-50 Drivers...

2008-02-13T09:40:00.001-08:00

Right, so I never got through all of them. I spent too much time writing about illegal immigration over break, so that's the way it goes.

Stay tuned next week as the race summaries make a return.

Unless Congress starts passing more shamnesty bills, then I'll be back on my Conservative Rumblings blog.

2008 Predictions: Round 1

2008-01-26T00:58:00.000-08:00

Ryan Newman breaks winless streak. Best chances: Dover, New Hampshire.

Kevin Harvick is placed on probation after yet another incident with Montoya.

DEI-RCR engine combination still has issues with COT.

Dale Jr. breaks winless streak...maybe.

Juan Montoya causes at least six accidents. At Daytona.

Open wheeler influx leads to many more cautions.

Toyota wins a race or two with JGR, but other TRD teams (except 83 car) still struggle.

COT continues to disappoint with boring racing.

Independent teams continue to be crushed; will be all but extinct by 2010.

Mark Martin declares that he is "blessed."

Jeff Gordon beats Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Daytona as the race finishes under caution due to a Dario Franchitti/Juan Montoya wreck.

New Top-35 Qual Rule Hurts, Well, Everyone

2008-01-26T00:42:00.001-08:00

Congratulations, NASCAR. In another attempt to “level the playing field,” you’ve only succeeded in making it worse.

No, I’m not talking about the insane Car of Tomorrow debacle. We all know how well THAT worked last year, you know, NASCAR’s whole idea of helping the little guy was obviously embodied by one team winning half the races and once proud organizations (Morgan-McClure, not Ginn, mind you) closing their doors.

No, I’m talking about the New Top-35 qualifying rule. This is the one that now dumps all the “go or go home” cars together at the end of a session. Ostensibly, this rule will bring parity to the cars that are on the outside looking in (for brevity’s sake, I’m calling all these non-top-35 cars the ‘Outsiders’ from now on).

In 2007, the war of the Outsiders raged every week; with a dozen fully funded teams fighting for seven or eight spots, hundredths of a second could mean the difference between making the race and packing up and going home. What ended up happening, however, was that when some Outsider teams went early in the session, those that went at the end easily beat the first group’s times and made the races. This sometimes led to what were referred to as “inferior teams” (read: non-Toyotas) beating “well-funded teams” (read: Toyotas).

Of course, the cry of foul came from many directions; some of the Outsider teams themselves (again, read: Toyotas), fans, the insanely drama-addicted ESPN commentators and of course, NASCAR itself began to get a bit worried when their buddies in TRD began to complain that their uber-teams weren’t making the races. That’s speculation on my part…of course.

So, NASCAR, true to form, has had another knee-jerk reaction, and presto, we have a new rule. Now, all the Outsiders will take their qualifying times at the end of every session, which is, for most tracks, when the faster times will be gotten. By grouping all the Outsiders together, they think it’s more “fair.”

What they failed to consider is that now there will be a disproportionate amount of “go or go home” cars qualifying too high in the field. On top of taking away higher starting spots from the cars that actually earned them, it’s dangerous for everyone involved, because you have these slow cars getting artificial boosts in time by virtue of this “bye” to qualify at the end of the session.

We saw at a couple races last year what happens when a really bad car turns a good lap at the end of a session and starts up front, and it’s not pretty.

What NASCAR needed to do was change the top-35 rule to a top-20 rule. Open the field up, take away more protected spots, and then there wouldn’t be so much of a problem. This whole meddling with the random order of qualifying is going to have some serious implications down the road, mark my words on that. Does an Outsider car that wins the pole by virtue of going out late ACTUALLY win that pole? Or is the pole given to the fastest car that was not handed a late draw on a silver platter? As I said, it’s going to be a mess.

Of course, NASCAR will never reduce the top-35 to a top-20, even if it would create more drama and better racing on Fridays. Because as much as NASCAR loves to manufacture drama, there’s only one thing they like more: sponsorship dollars.

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #40

2008-01-26T00:14:00.000-08:00

Sterling Marlin #14 Waste Management Chevy
Ginn Racing
40th in driver points (1752)
S: 21 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 18

Marlin hasn't had a competitive year since 2002, and his 2007 was, simply put, painful. He scored a couple of modest 16th place runs in the 14 car before being replaced in July by the erratic Ginn, who later sold his operation to DEI.

He then went on to attempt a few races in the 78 car, and then settled for two field filler runs in the Miccosukee 09 car. He will pilot that car in 7-9 races in 2008, but aside from plate tracks, that 09 is usually quite uncompetitive, so we shouldn't expect much.

This sort of falls into the Bill Elliott category; nice guy, but he hasn't run well in almost six years.

2008 prediction: Maybe a couple top-20s, but he's only running 9 races so points don't matter

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #41

2008-01-26T00:05:00.000-08:00

Dale Jarrett #44 UPS Toyota
Michael Waltrip Racing
41st in driver points (1584)
S: 24 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 0

When Jarrett announced he was leaving the team that helped him win a champsionship for an upstart team and upstart manufacturer, I jokingly said that with his new number (44) he was only going to be half as good as he was in the 88. Hardy harr harr.

As it turned out, he was a whole lot worse than half bad. Every time he got lapped by the 88, which was running awful in its own right, Jarrett had to be mentally kicking himself. Once he ran out of champion's provisionals, he missed a race for the first time in years, and only managed two top-20s all year (which came in two of the last three races, mind you). MWR was not prepared for 2007, and Jarrett's farewell tour suffered because of it.

In 2008, he'll race just the first five races of the season and then retire...where he has a broadcasting job with ESPN waiting for him. He'll replace Rusty Wallace, which is a step in the right direction for the deplorable ESPN coverage. With Wallace out of the booth, perhaps we'll be able to hear about something other than his son and "draft boost."

2008 prediction: He'll be a heck of a lot more enjoyable to listen to in the booth than Rusty Wallace

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #42

2008-01-06T11:32:00.001-08:00

Bill Elliott #21 Little Debbie/Air Force/Motocraft Ford
Wood Brothers
42nd in driver points (1579)
S: 20 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 5

Awesome Bill from Dawsonville was anything but this year. He was dropped into the 21 car after it fell out of the top-35 in points, and while the team claimed it was for his experience, we all know it was for those precious champion's provisionals.

They didn't help much, however; Elliott could not manage anything better than a single top-15 (11th at Michigan), and ultimately the 21 car missed two races and slid to a 36th. place finish in the owner's points standings. Thus, is not guaranteed a spot at Daytona. You can't put all the blame on Elliott, but he did drive the car for 20 of its 34 races.

No word on 2008 plans; perhaps he will mercifully retire. He's a nice guy, but seriously.

Updated 01/25/08: Elliott WILL race in 2008, driving 17 races in the 21 car. Too much to hope for that'd he'd just retire.

2008 prediction: unknown

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #43

2008-01-06T11:23:00.000-08:00

A.J. Allmendinger #84 Red Bull Toyota
Team Red Bull
43rd in driver points (1165)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 1

Allmendinger's transition from Champ Car was a rough one; the yellow stripe only made 17 races, and only had three top-20s to show for it. He did drive a lot better in the COT than the old car, however, so you have to believe he will be a bit better next year.

His teammate Brian Vickers did significantly better in roughly the same equipment, so chalk it up to rookie inexperience.

2008 prediction: 25th in points

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #44

2007-12-11T21:41:00.000-08:00

Michael Waltrip #55 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota
Michael Waltrip Racing
44th in driver points (1149)
S: 14 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 2 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 8

Ah Michael Waltrip.

Waltrip bit off way more than he could chew in 2007, trying to start a brand new team with three cars and unproven Toyota powerplants. The foreign manufacturer figured they would walk into Nextel Cup racing and tear it up like they did in the Craftsman Truck Series, but unfortunately for them, they didn't even come close, and Waltrip's team was the poster child of their failures.

Trying to be a team owner and a driver didn't work out for Waltrip, as his two teams fared better than his #55 car, which was simply terrible all year.

After a huge cheating scandal at Daytona where his team was found with some sort of illegal fuel on his #55 Toyota, Waltrip promptly missed every race from California to Dover (a span of 12 races), and only managed to squeeze out two top tens and a pole in the 14 races he did make all season.

2008 prediction: 31st in points (I'm feeling generous today, plus JGR running Toyotas will help the whole camp).

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #45

2007-11-28T10:55:00.000-08:00

Jeremy Mayfield #36 360 OTC Toyota / #66 Best Buy Chevy
Bill Davis Racing / Haas CNC Racing
45th in driver points (1126)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 6

After his dustup with Ray Evernham last year, Mayfield landed with Bill Davis Racing and began the year driving their #36 Toyota Camry. Began is a relative term, however, because Mayfield missed the first four races of the year and eight of the first thirteen, immediately putting the team in a huge hole.

Mayfield was eventually removed from the car in October prior to the Phoenix race after failing to post a top-20 finish in 13 starts. He was hired that week by Haas CNC to replace Jeff Green in the 66 car, and he went out and promptly finished 40th in his first race with them.

Jeremy Mayfield was never a huge talent in Cup racing, and he's all but done now. He only managed five wins when he drove for some of the best in the business, and now that he's with lower tier teams, he can kiss win number 6 goodbye.

He could end up in either the 66 or the 70 for 2008, depending on how Haas reorganizes those cars. The 70, I think, is a better team, so it would make sense for Haas to give that to the better talent (i.e. Riggs).

2008 prediction: 29th in points (28th if he gets the 70)

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #46

2007-11-28T10:48:00.000-08:00

Kenny Wallace #78 Furniture Row Chevy
Furniture Row Racing
46th in driver points (1066)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 3

Wallace only made 15 starts this year, stepping out of the 78 car after Watkins Glen in August and then filling in for the injured Ricky Rudd in the 88 Snickers car with Robert Yates Racing.

His best finish of the year came at Bristol in the spring, where he notched a 21st place run. The 78 machine ran out of the top-35 in points the entire year; Joe Nemechek is supposed to be running the car full-time next year, and Wallace has not yet announced any plans.

2008 prediction: unknown

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #47

2007-11-23T21:01:00.000-08:00

Ward Burton #4 State Water Heaters Chevy
Morgan McClure Motorsports
47th in driver points (939)
S: 16 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 4

The 2002 Daytona 500 winner had a rough go of it in 2007, piloting the underpowered 4 car to only 16 starts. Due to various issues, he only completed half those starts, so it was pretty much a week in and week out set of heartaches for the team and driver. His best finish was easily a 14th in the Brickyard 400, where he started 40th and made an impressive run up through the field. Burton was replaced with Todd Bodine for the last race of the season, and as of right now, there are no indications as to who will be in the seat next year. Whoever is, however, will be in for a long year; the 4 car isn’t winning races any time soon.

Updated 01/24/08: It seems the 4 car is no more.

2008 prediction: If he gets the car full-time, 35th to 40th in points

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #48

2007-11-23T20:50:00.001-08:00

John Andretti #49 obovo.com Dodge
BAM Racing
48th in driver points (932)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 2

Andretti took over the ill-fated 49 car midway through the season after Mike Bliss failed to qualify it for a number of events, but the latters results weren’t much better. Andretti also filled in for Kyle Petty in the 45 car for several races while Petty commentated for TNT, and again, his results were nothing to pay much attention to. Andretti managed a single top-20 finish (18th at Chicagoland), which was enough to beat Schrader for 48th in points based on the tiebreaker.

Andretti is signed to run the 49 for the full 2008 season, although that is a relative term to use, because the 49 most likely will not make all the races

2008 prediction: 37th in points, misses at least five races

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #49

2007-11-23T20:41:00.001-08:00

Ken Schrader #21 Little Debbie/Air Force/Motocraft Ford
Wood Brothers
49th in driver points (932)
S: 13 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 3

The 21 car hasn’t been competitive since 2004, and it really showed this year, as Ken Schrader and Bill Elliot both took turns at the wheel, and neither of them made much of a dent into the points battle. Schrader started only 13 races (including the first eight of the season), but once the car fell out of the top-35 in owner’s points (and thus lost a guaranteed starting spot), the team placed Bill Elliot in the car to use his champion’s provisional. Ok, ok…they claimed it was not to use the provisional, it was to use his “skills,” but let’s not kid ourselves.

Schrader’s best show was at Martinsville in the spring, where he finished 19th. It’s safe to say that he is past his prime in racing, and probably will not have a full-time ride in 2008. He may get some work in the 21, but I consider it very unlikely that he’ll run much more than he did this year.

2008 prediction: He’ll probably run part time, if at all, so no points prediction. He’ll run relatively well at the short tracks if he gets a ride.

2007 NNCS: The Top-50 Drivers - #50

2007-11-20T00:01:00.000-08:00

Regan Smith #01 US Army Chevrolet
Dale Earnhardt, Inc
50th in driver points (516)
S: 7 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 0 ||| LL: 1

Smith drove a part-time schedule in 2007, starting just seven races in the 01 Chevrolet in order to maintain his rookie status for 2008. He managed to pick up two top-25 finishes (25th at spring Bristol and 24th at the spring Talladega race a month later) and a top-10 start at Watkins Glen, but beyond that, he was invisible. Considering that popping into a Cup car once a month is not exactly an easy job, especially for a rookie, his performance means nothing good or bad. The theory is that he got his kinks out this year and will make a run for ROTY in 2008. He managed to finish every race he entered, however, which points to a solid driver who knows you have to finish to finish well.

As mentioned, Smith is still eligible for rookie status next year, and will take over the 01 full-time as Martin and Aric Almirola will split time in the 8 car vacated by Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

2008 prediction: 19th in points, 2nd in ROTY behind Patrick Carpentier

NASCAR Announces Secret “Lucky 13” Provision to Chase Rules

2007-09-09T08:10:00.000-07:00

Sparks flew and sheet metal exploded across the track all night, but the biggest story of the race for many fans was not the wild red-flag inducing racing at Richmond International Raceway that marked the 26th race of the Nextel Cup season. Instead, many fans were distraught that for the second time in three years, NASCAR’s most popular driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. will miss the 10-race “Chase for the Cup.” The Chase, NASCAR’s version of the playoffs, begins next week at New Hampshire and lasts the final ten races of the season.

After blowing in a motor in the final qualifying race at Richmond, Earnhardt ended up over 200 points behind Kevin Harvick, who took the final transfer spot in the Chase by virtue of his 12th place position in the standings.

That was the story that most fans fell asleep to Saturday night. Harvick fans rejoiced, and Junior fans looked forward to next year, when the driver will join Hendrick Motorsports, arguably the strongest team in NASCAR.

Hours after the race ended, however, NASCAR put out a press release to all major news organizations that the 12-man Chase was not the end-all result of the final race of the regular season. The release stated that a “Lucky 13” rule was a part of the original set of rules governing the changes to this year’s format, and by virtue of that rule, Earnhardt Jr., who ended up 13th in the standings, will now be allowed to compete for the championship.

NASCAR spokesman Ramsey Poston defended the move, stating that the “Lucky 13” rule has been in existence since the new Chase format was announced earlier this year, and that the rule would have been used for “any driver,” not just Junior, who is, coincidently, the most popular driver in NASCAR.

After Earnhardt and superstar Jeff Gordon missed the Chase in 2005 and defending champion Tony Stewart missed the Chase last year, NASCAR widened the field from 10-12 this year, prompting many critics to argue that the new rule was simply a buffer to make sure the superstars (and thus, super-sponsors) made the final 10 race playoff.

The twelve drivers were apparently not enough for NASCAR; Poston further elaborated on the “Lucky 13” rule, stating that they were also looking into possible wild card entries to the Chase next year, including a fan vote, a lottery system, a reward for poles, starts, and attempts and a “gimme” for those with many DNFs. Two final means of qualifying are already approved and will be used next year, and they include country of birth and car manufacturer, two attributes that would insure that the highest driver in the standings from every country and the highest ranked car of each manufacturer would also be present in the Chase. The latter rule would seem to be a huge boon to Toyota, the latest entry into NASCAR Cup racing, which has struggled mightily to simply make races, much less contend for wins and championships.

Poston was asked if that sort of attitude towards the Chase would dilute the format, but he declined to comment, stating that, “Emperor France has proclaimed that these changes will take effect next year, and under no circumstances will I discuss these additions with anyone outside of NASCAR leadership, nor will I allow some outside organization to influence how we run our series. No one owns us! No one!”

Poston delivered his final comment from the seat of his brand new 2008 Toyota Land Cruiser before speeding away from the track.

Race Review: Pennsylvania 500 presented by Rush Hour 3

2007-08-07T21:42:00.000-07:00

Pocono has Two Dates…Why?
I hate to just fill another race review with negativity, but what else can you do when you watch over three hours of poor racing squeezed in between gangster-styled music videos and absurdly annoying “Draft Tracker” sessions. Kudos to the Miller Lite team for hitting the mark, but isn’t that what happens every race here? One team hits it, runs away, and that’s the end of the day. I think that during the longest stretch of green flag racing I actually dozed off and dreamed I was watching Darlington. It was magical.

Tell me Again that NASCAR Doesn’t Show Favoritism
Dale Jr. again needed a little “administrative assistance” during the race, and NASCAR Race Control was happy to oblige. After he (intentionally, in my book) spun himself to bring out a yellow that he desperately needed to replace his shock, NASCAR took a whopping five laps to resume the green flag. This was for a single-car spin that left no debris. How long did it take for them to go green after the biggest wreck of the day? Three laps. Three laps to clean up six cars worth of debris, but five laps when a single car spins just doesn’t compute. It is getting tiring, and I think that if ESPN wasn’t giving fans the worst coverage of NASCAR seen in the last six years that maybe more people would have noticed.

Speaking of Which…
Rumor has it that after the antics of last week (missing a practice session and playing commercials over most of qualifying), ESPN has been kicked off all future qual and practice sessions, effective by Michigan in two weeks. That is a huge blow for the network, which has tried to take the NASCAR watching community by storm and has failed utterly. From inane commentary from unqualified analysts to the afore mentioned (and still absurd) “Draft Tracker” fiasco to “Back in the Saddle,” ESPN has been a monumental disappointment (and in some cases, rage-inducing nightmare) for NASCAR fans everywhere.

Chris Tucker - Bravo good sir.
He joins Kevin James and Nicholas Cage in the elite club of great ‘Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!’ commands this year. All the CEOs and board members need to take note; that’s how you do it. We don’t want anymore of those wimpy little “I don’t even know if the mic is on” commands. Say it like you mean it!

Has Anyone Noticed…
That during the commercial about NASCAR ‘invading’ New York, the scrolling marquee of news stories above the cars is describing something about a “newborn being murdered?” Just seems like a very poor choice of video to use, and you would have thought that the editors of that piece would have caught it.

The “What Were They Thinking” Award
We have dual winners this week! First, it goes, again, to NASCAR Race Control for restarting the Busch race at Montreal with Robby Gordon still lined up in second place. They KNEW he was going to spin out Marcos Ambrose, and to be honest, I think that’s why they left him there; they wanted the drama and the headlines, at everyone’s expense. Think about it; if that race had ended with Ambrose or even Gordon checking out, it would have been a backmarker in the sports news of the weekend, especially with the Bariod Bonds chase still limping along. Instead, they got a controversy that actually got the race, in the junior NASCAR league, mentioned on the 6:00 o’clock news in venues all across the country. They did it on purpose, and shame on them for costing Marcos Ambrose a shot at his first win.

Equally stupid and jaw dropping were Robby Gordon’s own antics. He might have had a case had he lined up where he was supposed to and just finished the race and protested the caution dance later, but ramming into a driver’s car three times under caution, refusing to line up, spinning the leader while you are already disqualified, then doing a burnout and declaring you won the race is far beyond the acceptable conduct for a driver in the second most popular motorsports series in America (behind only Nextel Cup, of course).

Chase Watch
A little shake up internally as Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson swap spots (Johnson’s top-5 eclipsed Harvick’s rather lackluster 17th) swap spots, with the 48 team now in 7th and the 29 back in 9th. Elsewhere, the real race is heating up for 12th, as the battle of the beers is back. Dale Earnhardt Jr, despite finishing 2nd, lost 12th to the only person who COULD gain points on him, the winner, Kurt Busch. Down the stretch, it is Penske vs DEI at this point; there are two spots available for Junior, Busch, Martin Truex and Ryan Newman. I give the edge to Truex and Busch at this point.

Pepsi 400 Review

2007-07-10T10:07:00.000-07:00

Last Plate Race for the Current Car, and She Goes Out with a Bang!
The new car may completely ruin superspeedway racing as we know it (or make it better beyond our wildest dreams), but I think that the latter is highly unlikely given how spectacular the finish of Saturday’s race was. Jamie McMurray edged out Kyle Busch for the closest finish in Daytona history (and 2nd closest overall in NASCAR behind only Ricky Craven’s win at Darlington, where, interestingly, Busch’s older brother, Kurt, finished second).

Here’s to the current Cup car and the tremendous finishes (both plate and non) that she’s given us; here’s hoping your successor will at least come close.

O Teammates, Where Art Thou?
First, the Gibbs teammates of Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin took each other out while leading the race, then blamed each other for the wreck. From my point of view, Hamlin got loose and Stewart got into him (an exact repeat of the incident in the Daytona 500, only with Stewart on the giving end instead of the receiving end). Of course, in Stewart’s eyes, both times that accident wasn’t his fault, which is a somewhat interesting perspective to take.

Either way, it is an owner’s worst nightmare when two cars that you own tear each other up (especially when they are leading the race), and the comments made by Stewart afterward lead me to believe that all may not be completely fine and dandy in Gibbsland. It doesn’t particularly surprise me, though, because I can see Stewart getting fed up with Hamlin’s insecurity and immaturity real quick. We’ll have to keep our eyes on this one.

Another bout of teammate unhappiness came from the eventual second place finisher Kyle Busch. He is obviously leaving Hendrick Motorsports at the end of the season, and as such, it seems that the other Hendrick drivers are not so keen on helping him win races. Case in point: Jeff Gordon pushed Jamie McMurray to the lead, around Busch, Saturday night, a move that prompted Busch to announce that “the bliss was over” for him at HMS. I imagine that the friction will build between the three drivers who are staying and Busch, especially given his attitude to the whole situation.

How long do the phrases “learning curve” and “he’s a rookie” continue to apply to Juan Montoya?
When he came to NASCAR, he was billed as this phenomenal natural talent who was going to take the other drivers by storm. Well, he’s certainly done that, but the ‘storm’ is the weekly accident he causes. I know that moving from an open-wheel series with no real racing and huge manufacturer advantages to the most competitive form of motorsports in the world where parity is pretty much unrivaled is going to be a shock to the system, but the guy has now had almost 40 races to “learn the ropes,” and he’s still making the same stupid mistakes every week.

I’d be giving him more slack if he was an actual rookie like David Ragan, but honestly, he is supposed to be an ‘amazing racer,’ but what’s happening is it’s the guy’s arrogance that is doing him in. When he announces that he thinks he is the best stock car road racer in NASCAR and then says that he has “more passion for racing” then anyone else in the garage, there’s a problem.

He spun himself in the closing laps of the Busch race (which brought out, inexplicably, a caution flag, but more on that later), and then, during the Cup race, he drove so dangerously that by lap 50, several drivers were calling him a “weapon” and spotters were warning their drivers as to where the 42 car was. That’s wrong and should never be happening; Montoya just consistently drives over his head. He clearly is having a hard time adjusting to the stock cars, which are a lot more difficult to handle than his Formula 1 car, but he won’t admit it. He still acts like he’s the crown prince of racing and God’s gift to NASCAR, and the other drivers are suffering for it. He runs every lap like it’s the last one, and it’s all take and no give from him, every corner of every lap.

During the Cup race, drivers paid the price for racing next to Montoya when the latter lost control of his car and, instead of letting of the throttle and giving up the spot, kept his foot in the gas and slammed another car into the wall. Montoya later ran over Bobby Labonte when the 43 checked up for an accident and he (Montoya) thankfully was unable to race with the pack the rest of the evening, leaving the rest of the field immune to being “Montoya’d.”

By the way, I coined that verb about 10 seconds after Kevin Harvick got taken out; Sporting News just printed their article before mine.

Wide Open Coverage…Please, Sir, I Want Some More!
Even though we did have to endure another one of TNT’s 17 hour prerace shows, the Wide Open Coverage during the race was wildly successful in my opinion. The huge lack of commercials (only 4 and a half minutes per hour) was a tremendous improvement over TNT’s usual 4 and a half minutes of racing per hour.

I would much rather have someone, even a numbskull like Bill Weber, telling us that the race was sponsored by [insert ten names here] every few minutes than I would have to go to a commercial break. Plus, when they did play several national commercials, they were played in a small window to the right of the screen, and were customized commercials for NASCAR fans. Bravo to TNT for breaking the mold.

However...Those Pillars Still Need to Go
Their Wide-Open coverage may have been a spectacular departure from their usual commercial-laden broadcasts, but TNT seems to have taken a page from the ESPN book by treating their fans like they are kind of slow. Their new CG-ed pillars that they are super imposing across the screen at every track are terribly stupid and unnecessary. They were most annoying at Sonoma when they disturbed the screen by putting one at each corner, but the ‘restart’ pylon at Daytona was hideous as well. Fans either know where the restart line is (or they’ll quickly figure it out), or they don’t care. When we watch the race, we want to see the race as if we were sitting in the stands. We don’t need TNT to ‘help’ us understand the race better. The pillars are almost as bad as Bill Weber explaining every rule in NASCAR every time they are used. Almost.

The Hard Luck Award
This week it goes to Boris Said, who was sitting on the provisional pole when NASCAR ended qualifying, due to rain, with only a dozen and a half cars left to go. Because the field reverted to owner’s points, Said went from pole sitter to couch sitter, as he didn’t even make the race.

The “What Were They Thinking?” Award
This one goes to NASCAR race control for their insane inconsistency in Saturday’s Busch race. With 6 or so laps to go, Montoya spun himself down onto pit road, which brought out a caution, even though he was not in the way of anything.

Then, with only a couple of laps left, a car spun much closer to the racing surface…and no caution. Inconsistent? Absolutely! Surprising? Not in the least.

Chase Watch
No changes in or out of the top-12 this race, however, after getting caught up in wrecks, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. all lost a lot of ground numbers-wise. It didn’t help Junior that the new 13th place man in the points is Jamie McMurray, who won the race. Kyle Busch, with his runner up finish, picks off Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. to take over 8th in points. After wrecking with his teammate, Denny Hamlin loses a bunch of points to leader Jeff Gordon, but then again, those margins really mean nothing at this point. Junior is still on the hot seat, and is currently just 49 points ahead of 13th.

The top-12 is, I think, about set right now. I feel that there could be one transfer spot available, that one car in the top-12 might falter during the stretch and let someone in. Who is it going to be? If I had to pick someone, I would say that either Kyle Busch, Truex Jr. or Dale Jr. may fall out, and Jamie McMurray or Ryan Newman could then get in.

The Other Side of the Garage
Bill Davis Racing’s #22 Toyota takes a spot away from the Wood Brothers #21 Ford to slide into 36th for Owner’s Points, but with an 18th place finish, the #70 machine out of Haas CNC Racing still hangs onto 35th by a comfortable 178 point margin. The gap is widening between the haves and have-nots in the standings, and I’d say within the next six or eight weeks, the top-35 will be pretty much locked up for next year. The problem that the go or go home cars are having is that different cars outside the top-35 are making the races every week and different cars are running ‘well,’ (subjectively speaking). This is causing a rotating 36th place car, all while 35th place continues to race and finish each and every week. I really think that everyone more than 250 or 300 points behind 35th (i.e. the #83, #00, #44, #78, #4, #36, #84 and #55) are done for the year with regard to getting back into the top-35. There’s still a chance that the #22, #21, #10 or #15 could sneak back in, but other than that, I think that’s it.

Rain, Rain, Go Away: Observations from Pocono

2007-06-11T12:29:00.000-07:00

Someone Stop Those Black Helicopters!
The conspiracy theorists were out in full force after Jeff Gordon was declared the winner of the race, and, while I will admit that the timing of the yellow (as Ryan Newman was just about to pass him) was a bit slimy, I think that most people realize that everyone got completely outstrategized by Steve Letarte and the 24 crew. Every other team had the same chance to try what Gordon did, and instead they played it safe and lost. That's racin' boys!

Why Do We Have to Go To Pocono Twice?
An even better question; why twice in two months? We might have only gotten in 100 laps, but it felt like four days worth of racing. Let's dump the second Pocono date and give it back to the Rock or Darlington. Takers?

Chase Watch
With Kurt Busch's penalty, he falls all the way to 17th prior to the race and only made up one spot in the abbreviated race itself. He remains 132 markers out of 12th, which is currently occupied by Mark Martin, who stated, yet again, that he has no plans to run for the championship. We'll see how THAT pans out if he's in range come Richmond.

Ryan Newman picks up two spots to 13th with a another 2nd place finish, and Jimmie Johnson breaks up the Hendrick 1-2 at the top by finishing 42nd and dropping to 4th in the standings. He's still over 300 points ahead of 12th, however, so the wheels have not come off that team by any means.

The Other Side of the Garage
No change to the magical 35th in Owner's Points yesterday, but the 10 car of Scott Riggs pulled within 20 points of the number 70 machine. Keep an eye on both of them at Michigan, as the road course at Infineon has not been kind to either of those drivers and both of them desperately want to be in the top-35 and locked in to the field when we get there in two weeks.

Bill Elliot's ride in the 21 was completely unhelpful, and he leaves the 21 machine mired 240 points out of 35th.

Welcome back TNT...Oh, How We Did Not Miss You
While DW's incessant Hendrick cheering is not exactly the most pleasant thing to listen to while watching Nascar on FOX, at least he doesn't make mistakes every five minutes or call cars by old drivers and make ridiculously stupid jokes. Aside from Kyle Petty, who did a phenomenal job in his debut Cup race coverage, and Larry Mac, who is on loan from FOX, the entire TNT crew is a joke.

Final Grade for Pocono: B-
The only thing that saved this from being rated much worse was the pit strategy and the drama of when the rain was coming and who was going to pit when. Pocono, on the whole, is just a boring track in my opinion, and every year it seems like we have to deal with weather there when we come here in June.

Where's Ralph?

2007-05-28T11:54:00.000-07:00

Everyone has, apparently, nothing to talk about but (Dale) Ralph Earnhardt Jr. these past few weeks, so I guess it's time for me to share my oh-so-humble opinion.

Basically, these are the options, as I see it, for the guy. He wants to drive for Chevy, so that rules out some teams. Plus, we know he's not going to drive for a field filler or for a team like Haas that is just barely finishing top-20 every week. So, that leaves the following, in order of their best fit for Junior.

Joe Gibbs Racing
I think that JGR is actually the best fit for him, because of his friendship with Hamlin and Stewart. However, since the Coach said he's not taking Budweiser in as a sponsor and Junior certainly doesn't want to part with them, I don't think it is exactly the dream scenario.

If he did go, however, he could easily take over the 18 car, and Yeley could move to JGR's satellite team, Hall of Fame racing, driving their second car. As I said, pretty good fit.

Fit: 80%
Chance: 20%

JR Motorsports
Junior wants to be his own man, and there's no way better to do that than with his own team. The problems, however, are numerous. His Busch program is not a consistent winner or even consistent top-5 car, and that leads me to think that his Cup effort, despite the money from Budweiser, might be more along the lines of a Michael Waltrip effort than an Alan Kulwicki team.

On top of that, while owner/drivers are still around, they are not weekly contenders. If Junior pulls his own team into the Cup series, it will be because he's too stubborn to make something work somewhere else, and it will also be the biggest mistake in his career.

Fit: 80%
Chance: 40%

Ginn Racing
Ginn's upstart little team (formerly known as MB2 Motorsports) has certainly flexed its muscle this year, with a runner up finish in the Daytona 500 and a number of good runs with Mark Martin behind the wheel of the 01. What Ginn does not have right now is a superstar, and Junior could fit that bill easily. He would handily be the number one driver over there, with the aging Sterling Marlin about to retire and Front-Row Joe Nemecheck sitting midpack every week.

The biggest problem with this move is that Junior has said he wants to be a contender, and Ginn, in my opinion, has not proven that they will continue to be good. Ten races into the season is not enough to decide if the organization is completely sound.

Still, I think it is a good fit and a higher chance than JGR. Junior would be the center of attention, would have the best equipment, would have his precious sponsor and would still be driving a Chevy. I guess it's just up to whether or not he considers Ginn a 'contender.'

Fit: 65%
Chance: 35%

Richard Childress Racing
There are a lot of people on the fence on this one. I, however, am not one of them. I strongly believe that Junior does not belong driving the #3 car; no one does but the late, great Dale Earnhardt himself. Obviously, at RCR Junior could drive another car number than the 3, but he has already said he wants to distance himself from his father's legacy and make his own name. He can't do that very well at a company his father raced for for decades.

I don't think the RCR and Junior mix is nearly as solid as many think. For starters, the RCR bunch already has a solid stable of drivers, including the prerequisite superstar (Daytona winner Kevin Harvick), veteran (Jeff Burton) and young gun (Clint Bowyer). Add to that the fact that RCR Busch driver Scott Wimmer has already been mentioned as a fourth-car driver in the Cup series and you have a pretty full stable.

The biggest reason I think this won't work, however, is the new engine building alliance between RCR and DEI. I personally don't think the alliance helps RCR much, since they have much more solid packages than DEI, but with regards to Earnhardt, the man has said he doesn't agree with how DEI is run and wants to be done with it. If that's the case, he certainly doesn't want to sign with a team that is now working closer than ever with his former organization.

Fit: 45%
Chance: 30%

Hendrick Motorsports
Junior wants a contender, and there's no one better than Hendrick Motorsports right now. Rick Hendrick, however, has said that his stable is full. However, do you believe he wouldn't make room for Junior? Neither do I.

In fact, I honestly think that this is where Junior is going to end up in 2008. With Casey Mears winning the Coke 600, I think the man on the hotseat is Kyle Busch, and I think he's about to get burned. The guy wrecks cars every week and has an attitude almost as bad as his big brother Kurt. He is a disruptive force on and off the track, and I think that Rick Hendrick would be wise to dump him, and even wiser to pick up Junior. Think about it; the two biggest superstars in the sport (Junior and Jeff Gordon) running as teammates. Talk about marketing opportunities!

Plus, the car is a contender (when it's not smashed into the fence by Busch), so that fills that part of the quota.

Ironically, despite the fact that it will give him the best chance to win a championship, the Junior Legion will probably hate this move. After all, they all hate Gordon because of his success, and it won't sit well with them to see Junior as his teammate. I almost want him to move over there just to see all of their reactions...but I digress; the superstar factor is the only reason I say this doesn't fit.

Yes, I know, I said that's where he's going to end up, but that doesn't mean that's the best fit. Putting two Nextel Cup champions and Dale Jr. on the same team should be interesting. After all, the latter will expect to be number one, but he should, at best, be number three behind Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Expect some friction, but expect Dale Jr. in the 5 car next year, with Kyle Busch looking for a job...which he might find in, oh, I don't know, the old 8 car?

Silly Season at its best, folks.

Fit: 35%
Chance: 80%

Smoke and Mirrors: Observations from Richmond

2007-05-06T21:08:00.000-07:00

New Week, Same Song
Hendrick Motorsports is a juggernaut right now. Like them or hate them, they are THE team to beat, aside from Mears and the 25 team. The latter is safe (for this week) from the dreaded "36th in points and back" curse, but they need to do something, anything, in the next few weeks, or there needs to be serious changes over there.

Don't Beat Yourself
Between Kevin Harvick's crew chief and spotter, they have to figure out what they did today and never do it again. You don't win championships by running into people on pit road.

Speaking of winning championships
Dale Earnhardt Jr, for all his hype, still isn't doing anything in the "W" column. It has now been over a year since he's won, and despite a few good finishes, he's been pretty lackluster this season, even though the series has visited three of his best tracks in consecutive weeks.

Who Cares About De Hoya vs Mayweather?
When is the Newman/Montoya rivalry going to come to blows? Personally, I'll bet on the guy who looks like he could pass for the Dover trophy over Montoya.

Haas is Here...Sort of.
The two Haas CNC cars again ran well in a COT race, as long as you can forget about Jeff Green's pair of nose-sliding incidents. They'll have a big test ahead at Darlington, however.

Final Grade for Richmond: B
Some drama, a lot of good racing, but again, the lap down line of cars causes problems for contenders and slows the pace of the race. The COT still won't turn, which I suspect will be even more evident next week at Darlington.